Bernie out of the campaign? March 2, 2016Posted by wmmbb in US Politics.
Super Tuesday has come and gone. Ted Cruze has won in Texas and Oklahoma, otherwise the Donald has been successful. The real contest for the presidency is among the Democratic Party nominees.(This is despite the suggestion that the swings and roundabouts favour the Republican candidate this year.)
Things look bleak for Bernie. However, Robert Reich begs to differ. Making his assessment prior to the close of the polls he suggests the notion of momentum is a media fiction, and that upcoming primaries will be more favourable to Sanders. He argues the race is still much alive for three reasons:
1. In the next few months the primary map starts tilting in Bernie’s favor: In later March: Maine, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Arizona, Washington state, and Hawaii. In April: Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island. In May: Indiana and Oregon. In June, California, New Jersey, and New Mexico.
2, Small-donor contributions continue to flow in to Bernie’s campaign. In February, the campaign raised a whopping $42 million. South Carolina’s loss didn’t stop the flow: The campaign received $6 million on Monday alone.
3. Bernie’s campaign is a movement. Americans know we must get big money out of politics and take back our economy from an incipient oligarchy. That’s why Bernie will take this movement all the way to the Democratic convention in, July 25-28 in Philadelphia (you might make plans to be there, too).
What do you think?
The last point is the most important. What happens to his current supporters, and the set of groups that have aligned with his campaign, when and if, he is trumped by Hillary, either before or at the Convention?
Some groups will move over and support the campaign of Jill Stein, but most, I suspect, are not likely to vote, thus reinforcing the prerogatives of the oligarchy. Donald Trump does accurately reflect the farce that is American democracy.
Clinton has gained over 60% in the following states:
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. She had 57% in Minnesota and appears to be winning in Massachusetts.
Sanders had very large win in Vermont, and is winning in Colorado and Oklahoma.
My estimation is that Clinton is definitely in front, but it is not decisive, except in the South. The result in Texas cannot be ignored. Unlike Ben Carson, for example among the Republicans, Sanders still in contention, but I suspect trailing, particularly among African-Americans and Latinos. I doubt if the nomination can be won without support from those populations.
Glen Ford envisages both major parties coming apart at the seams at their conventions: