FRIDAY NIGHT DOG BLOG: WAITING FOR RAIN July 5, 2014Posted by wmmbb in DOG BLOG -.
While it not correct to say the creek is not running. It has not been running for weeks where Dexter, Hannah and I cross. My sense is that it has been dry. If this were to continue there would be implications.
The Bureau of Meteorology confirms this suspicion. They note:
The chances of receiving above median rainfall for July to September are less than 40% over most of NSW, and less than 30% in the inland northeast of NSW. In other words, these areas have a greater than 60% chance of below average rain. For every ten July to September periods with similar odds to these, at least six of them would have below-average rain.
. . .
Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, the increase in Pacific Ocean temperatures has levelled off in recent weeks. Despite some easing in the model outlooks, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. While POAMA, the model that produces the seasonal outlooks, does not forecast a high probability of El Niño, it retains a drier signal across the country due to patterns in the ocean and atmosphere across the Pacific. This drier signal is consistent between international models regardless of their ENSO forecast.
The two major concerns will be bush fire activity and water restrictions.
The dogs were out this week, and fortunately nothing of a dramatic nature occurred. I am now very careful descending the embankment. There were few photos and it took some time to assemble them. The music is a problem.
I am not so sure, that the summertime will be welcoming, but this version by Lark and Spur, is among the better renditions of “Will Ye Go Lassie Go” (Otherwise “Wild Mountain Thyme”):