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PM BALLOT PREDICTION June 26, 2013

Posted by wmmbb in Australian Politics.
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Time for me to make the call ahead of the ALP leadership ballot to be held  in a hours time at 7PM.

Kevin Rudd will win this time. My reason, what I understand the polls to be forecasting at the Federal Election if Julia Gillard were to continue as the leader. The ALP is facing a political abyss. It is noticeable that the ALP also faces a political disaster in the Senate, which is especially troubling for the ALP. My sense is that they have been stuck on a low level, regardless of what legislation was passed in Parliament. If you are a backbencher and you are going to loss, or even if you might have reason to feel more comfortable, what else can you do but vote for a change. It would be signing off on a political career to do otherwise.

For whatever reason, Julia Gillard lacked the “charisma” that some people seem to possess. It is useful to remember that JFK just scrapped in, and allegedly with some help from Illinois. I don’t really understand why people are so set against the prime minister, but the fact of the polls suggest that is the case. Perhaps tragedy, if that is how the outcome might be described, arises from lack of self knowledge.

The return of Krudd will galvanize a demoralized ALP. If he does win, he needs to show the leadership of reconciliation. There will be a honeymoon effect. Then the focus will be contest between Kevin and Tony.

Of course, Kevin Rudd will have to win a vote of confidence in the House of Reps, which is no guaranteed, but I think is more likely than not, depending on the call of Independents who have announced their resignations today.

I could be wrong. However, I will make a punt. There will be no apologies.

Kevin Rudd confirms his leadership challenge this evening:

So what happened? Should I give up as a political forecaster?

UPDATE: 7.55 pm

The ALP Caucus has just elected Kevin Rudd as their party leader. He won the party room ballot by 57:45. We will now see how this effects the polls, and how this will change the electoral dynamic. I suspect that the House of Reps will confirm Kevin Rudd as prime minister tomorrow. It is, in my view, inconceivable that the Independents will not support the status quo prior to the election.

POSTSCRIPT:

The puzzle for me is why Julia Gillard did not hit it off  with the Australian electorate, particularly women, who I would have thought would have been more generally supportive of her. Certainly her success in a hung parliament in getting legislation passed will be her political legacy.

Jennifer Rayner at The Conversation suggests that because of her ambition she  did not identify with lot of raising children and running a family. Yet some among her close colleagues report on her acute emotional intelligence. Here, I suppose, that politicians live in there bubble world and perceptions are crucial. We can conclude, I suggest, that there is not a level playing field for those in politics who have leadership capabilities and ambitions. Perhaps all political parties should be expected, including in winnable seats, to select 50% male and female candidates.

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