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LANDSLIDE ON OFFER? April 18, 2011

Posted by wmmbb in Australian Politics.
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The first major party to change their leader in the Federal arena will win by a landslide. Such was my speculation, but it seems to be given credibility by a recent telephone poll.

The fact that the current political leaders are not attracting support they need to sustain their positions does not surprise me. The situation is unchanged since the last Federal Election, which resulted in an extraordinary development in Australian Politics of a hung parliament.

Peter Corey at The Sydney Morning Herald reports on the latest phone by Nielsen:

SUPPORT for federal Labor has hit a 15-year low according to the latest Herald/Nielsen poll. It also shows that for the first time more voters disapprove than approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing, while Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull are by far the preferred main party leaders.
In the past month the Coalition has stretched its two party-preferred lead over Labor by 4 percentage points while the government’s efforts to sell the carbon tax by spruiking generous compensation for low and middle income households has failed to lift support for the policy.
The phone poll of 1400 voters was taken from Thursday evening to Saturday night last week. It shows Labor’s primary vote was 2 points lower than a month ago at 31 per cent, its lowest level since May 1996, just after the defeat of the Keating government.
Primary support for the Coalition was 47 per cent, a 2-point rise, and its highest since February 2005, just after Mark Latham quit as Labor leader. The Greens remained steady on 12 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor by 56 per cent to 44 per cent.
Alarmingly for the ALP, the drubbing of the Keneally government last month has not eased pressure on federal Labor. It lags the Coalition on the primary vote in NSW by 51 per cent to 27 per cent, numbers almost identical to those of the NSW election.

It seems to me that phone polls may not be as reliable as they once were, such is the ubiquity of mobile phones, although pollsters aim for a demographic spread. Obviously the ALP needs to do something about NSW. Perhaps it is too close to the State Election.

The level of the public political debate, primarily the responsibility of the political leaders of the major parties, in my view has become appalling. So I am wondering at the significance of the retrospective apparent preference for Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd. Who else is there?

ELSEWHERE:

Henry Clark (via Blogtariat) gives his decided opinions on the political leadership.

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