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THE ALP DOWN AND OUT IN NSW? February 16, 2011

Posted by wmmbb in Australian Politics.

If the Neilsen Poll is to be believed then according to Anthony Green the Coalition will win 73 seats and the others 20 seats of which 14 will be held by the ALP. The poll is released today by The Sydney Morning Herald.

Sean Nicholls reports:

THE Keneally government is heading for a defeat of ”historic proportions” at next month’s election, according to the first poll of the election campaign, which shows Labor could be reduced to as few as 13 seats in the new Parliament.

The Herald/Nielsen poll shows the Coalition leads Labor by 66 per cent to 34 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, a swing of 18 per cent from the 2007 election result.

Labor’s primary vote has crashed to 22 per cent, down 9 percentage points since the previous Nielsen poll in November 2009.

The Coalition’s primary vote is up 10 points to 53 per cent, while the Greens’ primary vote is steady at 13 per cent.

Nielsen’s research director, John Stirton, described it as ”an astonishing result” and ”the biggest two-party preferred lead any party has had, state or federal, in the 39-year history of the Nielsen poll”.

The result suggests Labor has gained no benefit from a decision to launch its campaign almost seven weeks from the March 26 polling day and to target cost-of-living issues.

The statewide phone poll of 1000 voters was taken between Thursday and Sunday.

This was after Labor’s ”soft” launch in Penrith on February 6 and a subsequent debate between the Premier, Kristina Keneally, and the Opposition Leader, Barry O’Farrell, which Ms Keneally dominated.

But it caught only the start of Labor’s first tranche of television election advertising, which began screening on high rotation on Sunday night.

Ms Keneally’s first Nielsen approval rating is 36 per cent, which is three points lower than that of her predecessor, Nathan Rees, whose sole Nielsen approval rating was 39 per cent. Her disapproval rating is 58 per cent, nine points higher than Mr Rees rated.

What ever happened to the hard heads and know-it-alls in Sussex Street? Still the propaganda campaign has been launched on the unsuspecting television watchers, and perhaps that may make a difference. My calls for paying more attention to the Legislative Council have as far as I know been falling on deaf ears – but then again I do not have much of a megaphone. We as voters can figure these things out, but we are not well served by the media since their focus is likely to remain on the results in the Legislative Assembly.


The ABC reports Pru Goward is saying these results reflect voter antipathy to the composition of the Federal House of Reps. I suggest that has nothing at all to do with it. After a long litany of scandals, major and minor, the news that the electricity infrastructure had been sold off at bargain basement prices would have been sufficient for any political party to take a dive in the polls.

So what is an “exhaust rate” in regard to preference allocations? Kim at Larvatus Prodeo takes up the state of politics in NSW prior to 26 March.



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