The bombing in Lahore that killed twenty-six people and wounded 250 when a van was driven into a police checkpoint outside a police station and an Inter-Services Intelligence office.
This was the third attack in Lahore in as many months, according to the Pakistan newspaper, Dawn, via Juan Cole. They report as well at least two claims have been made purportedly by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Unsurprising the government military action in the Swat Valley and adjacent areas is given as the reason, along with the hardship caused to the refugees who have been displaced.
Some reports have suggested that it was a suicide attack, although in this case it was not a single person with the four or five people getting out of the vehicle then firing at random. At least two of the occupants of the van were later arrested by the police. The Guardian video shows one suspect been escorted by the police with onlookers giving expression to their opinions. Dawn has a photo of another suspect. “The Taliban” seems to show complete indifference to the Pakistan police. There were reports of police officers deserting almost in mass in the Swat Valley.
The fact that the ISI office was chosen as a target is significant, in that the military intelligence organization was considered to be a supporter of the Pathan (Pashtun) resistance to the Afghan government.
The other interesting coincidence was that David Petraeus just happened to be in Islamabad for talks with the Pakistan Government when the attack took place.
As The Independent reported there was more than one suggested reason for this latest act of terror:
Since the military launched a surprisingly forceful operation last month against Taliban fighters who had seized control of Swat and nearby areas after a ceasefire broke down, there has been concern that militants would launch attacks to distract the authorities and undermine popular support.
Lahore – the capital of the influential and powerful Punjab province – is an obvious target for such retaliatory attacks, especially given its traditional links to the military.
For the people of Lahore – considered the cultural capital of Pakistan and long having managed to avoid the worst of the militant violence that has rocked other parts of the country – such attacks are a new and mounting threat. In March, the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team was attacked and militants also launched an assault on a police training academy that same month. The latest bombing is the third such incident in the city this year but few will believe it will be the last.
“It’s difficult at this point to pin-point [who is responsible] but it’s probably linked to Swat or the tribal belt,” said retired general Talat Masood.
“This follows the pattern of attacks on the security and intelligence agencies. Targeting Lahore is important to them. I think [the authorities] were expecting something like this. The militants think it’s the only way they can stop the military operation because it could put pressure on the government with people calling for them to start negotiations.”
There was also speculation within the Pakistani media, however, that the attacks could have been linked to the trial of Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, the head of the banned group Jamaat-ud-Dawa, who stands accused over the Mumbai attacks. He had been due to be presented for a hearing at the nearby Lahore High Court. Some commentators suggested it may have been an escape attempt gone wrong.
There is significance in the numbers of people involved. It has to be evidence for bravado, extravagance or even desperation by the terrorists. Imran Khan reporting for Al Jareeza wrote:
There was always a fear that Pakistan’s war with the Taliban would spill over into the major cities.
We have seen attacks in the last 10 days in Peshawar, but this attack in Lahore has all the hallmarks of something more organised and more deadly.
Ordinary Pakistanis now fear the country as a whole is under threat [AFP] Lahore is one of Pakistan’s most iconic cities. Known for its liberal attitudes, it is the home of Pakistan’s art and cinema community.
The attack here shows that not only are Pakistan’s security forces under threat, ordinary people are too.The fear now among many – particularly the friends I have spoken to in Lahore – is that even if the Pakistani army wins the battle for the Swat valley, Pakistan itself will be under threat.
It is worth noting that the Pakistani Taliban, in addition to having a significant presence in the North West Frontier Province, have a reach across the country.
I hope Wednesday’s bombing isn’t the beginning of a new wave of attacks in Pakistan. However, all the indications suggest that is exactly what it is.
Syed Shoaib Hasan for the BBC was somewhat pessimistic about the state of affairs. He notes:
Pakistan’s military has always seen the country’s “strategic interests” through a different lens from the civilian governments.
In the past the military has acted as godfather to the militants.But never has the country faced as great an internal threat as it does now.
Experts say the situation can still be remedied if both parties agree that eliminating the militants is in Pakistan’s best interests.
If that does not happen, there appears little to prevent Pakistan from becoming the next Taliban state.
Those who have pressed the Pakistan Government to take military action will never admit to any strategic blunder since they do not suffer the consequences.
Note:
This action can be accurately described as terrorism. The purpose to inspire terror. At the same time it arises from a legitimate political grievance – the creation of 2.3 million refugees.
UPDATE:
The BBC reports two further suicide bombings in Peshawar. It seems obvious that if that number of refugees are created so quickly, with the resultant suffering, and presumably bankrupt Pakistan has not the resources to deal with them, then it very likely there will be a steady stream of volunteers for suicide bombing.
Going back to Richard Pape studies, if my memory is accurate, there was a conclusion that suicide bombers are religious fanatics, but then to nationalists. As it turns out, Richard Pape on ABC’s 7.30 Report in 2005 said:
There’s a faulty premise in the current strategy on the war on terrorism. That faulty premise is that suicide terrorism and Al Qaeda suicide terrorism in particular is mainly driven by an evil ideology Islamic fundamentalism independent of other circumstances. However, the facts are that since 1980, suicide terrorist attacks from around the world over half have been secular. What over 95 per cent of suicide attacks around the world [are about] is not religion, but a specific strategic purpose – to compel modern democracies to withdraw military forces from the territory that the terrorists view as their homeland or prize greatly and this is in fact a centrepiece of Al Qaeda’s strategic logic, which is to compel the United States and Western countries to abandon military commitments on the Arabian Peninsula.
Interestingly, Eric Margolis in his interview with Scott Horton at Anti-War.com mentioned that the Swat Valley was not part of Pakistan until about 1969. He also said that Pakistan was bankrupt, its political leaders corrupt, and its leaders installed by the Americans following the boring and familiar pattern. Eric Margolis said that foreign intervention is fundamentally undermining the Pakistan state with the possibility now that fractions of the army may start fighting one another.