John Hewson is not impressed with Peter Costello. What is of greater concern, as an economist, Hewson has fears that the economy may “tank”.
Peter Costello the former deputy leader of the Liberal Party and Treasurer, unlike other luminaries of the Howard Government whose lights went out even announcing their decisions to leave Parliament, has chosen to stay on, but not to take up a leadership position. So what is the plan?
The three year electoral cycle does sets a limit on the number of leadership changes that an opposition party can make. If the Liberals were to make another change of leadership now, or in the next eight months, that might work if they were able to come with a credible fresh face. Who that would be is anybody’s guess, but I agree with John Hewson it is not likely to be Costello, and for pretty much the reasons that he outlines.
Leaders have to have courage in the face of fear, especially in the current global economic circumstances. While we are not as fearful as people in the US, as the effects keep coming through the system, we could get there. So more so than usual, the teamwork between the Shadow Treasurer and the Opposition Leader become critical, and that means that in practice there has to be a succession deal worked out. One of the failures, in retrospect of John Howard, was that he stayed in the position of prime minister too long, and it seems the reason that was possible was due to the Treasurer.
Anyway, John Hewson is not that impressed. He observes with respect to the job of shadow treasurer:
I also doubt you have the skills, experience or self-confidence to have accepted the obvious job after losing the last election, namely shadow treasurer. You’d be lost without Treasury. You may have delivered 11 budgets but ask yourself honestly how many of them were actually yours, rather than Treasury’s. I am told Treasury is now drawing a sharp contrast between your little interest and involvement and that of Wayne Swan.
I expect Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Opposition into the next election. I wonder whether the ideological tensions in the parliamentary party, which I admit to ignoring, are reflected in the wider electorate. The primary thing for an opposition to do, it seems to me, is shore up its electoral base and then seek to widen it. Perhaps Oppositions might be helped by constructive dissent, but not by the Costello specialty of indulgence?
Governments, and specifically the Prime Minister, can take the electoral initiative, and Oppositions have to be ready for the contingency, which in the current economic circumstances more likely than not. John Hewson observes:
Despite what the Government says, the risk and opportunity of an election this year are very real, especially if my worst fears of our economy tanking are confirmed.
People are likely, I suspect, to vote for certainty and reassurance rather than uncertainty and disunity, now more than ever, which means that we might not be well served by unfounded personal ambition.
Postscript:
The greatness of Franklin Roosevelt was that he addressed the question of fear head on, in a positive way, rather than the more method of contrivance for political advantage.
ELSEWHERE:
Martin Jacques in the New Statesman observes in relation to the global financial situation, at present unraveling:
This crisis will have the most profound and far-reaching political consequences and will in due course transform the political landscape, but it remains entirely unclear in what ways and when that might be.
I do not know what Martin Jacques knows, but I suspect he is right. It seems to me it not so much we now know that neoliberalism has profoundly failed, and perhaps capitalism has failed as well, but that nobody knows what will work and why it will work. I could be wrong. I hope I am. But governments and political leaders cannot be that upfront and candid, or perhaps they can?
John Hewson is not the only one concerned about the global economy tanking. Paul Volker has the same concern.
Not that I know anything, but the loss of market capitalization by banks is extraordinary. Westpac, according to Tom Peters, is now the eight largest bank in the world, whereas previously it was ranked 100th. It rose because others fell.
It turns out that even genial Joe Hockey is having a poke at poor Peter Costello. He compares him to poor Charles Windsor – bonny prince, pretender to the throne.
UPDATE:
I obviously am not keeping up with the polls. Newspoll, via Kim at Larvatus Prodeo, shows the Rudd Government has a commanding lead of 58:42. Still, there is no election in immediate prospect. I may be wrong, but I do not think there is anybody else who might reasonably challenge Turnbull at this stage.