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AFTER THE HORSERACE October 27, 2008

Posted by wmmbb in US Politics.
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The McCain campaign is hoping for a miracle. Miracles do happen, but not with the frequency that McCain could hope for, and not of the type he wishes.

Some of the problems which he is faced are not of his making. He was not instrumental in creating the global financial crisis, nor the actions and unpopularity of the current Administration. He is however responsible for his erratic behavior and his selection of Sarah Palin. He does not have the financial resources or the ground campaigns that the Democrats have attracted with Obama.

A landslide is looking like, with consequences on the composition of Congress. Paul Harris in the Observer sketches a likely scenario:

Some analysts are seeing Democratic gains of up to nine Senate seats and 30 seats in the House of Representatives. In a leaked Republican party document last week, an incredible 58 House seats were ranked as potentially at risk with 11 of them virtually written off as already lost.

If the Democrats perform strongly enough to control 60 Senate seats then they would have a virtual free rein over the political landscape. Republicans would probably survive only in their heartland, thus thrusting the party further right at a time when the country has shifted left. That would mark a profound change similar to Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 which seemed to usher in a conservative-dominated era.

At that point John McCain will serve out his Senate term and then retire to Phoenix. Sarah Palin will probably run in the next Republican primaries, and then be heard of no more. If this plays out, Obama will probably serve two terms.

However, despite all the money expended, all the hours of campaigning, the voters have not been well served by choice. Among other things, Ralph Nader speaks of the obstacles that third parties face in a debate moderated by Chris Hedges (via Truthdig):

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