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Posted by wmmbb in Australian Politics.

J W Howard will I suspect not resign, or even be forced to resign by his party. The time to resign has long since passed. Now we have something of a tragedy to play out if the polls and the political market research proves correct.

The tragedy is not just about Howard. How could anyone be so blind? In truth, self delusion, this error of Howard’s, if history unfolds according to the script, is the easiest mistake to make in the world, and for that reason let us not judge harshly. If the Liberal Party is left in a parlous position, and let us hope that does not happen, or should it be seen as creative destruction, then the greater blame may lie with P Costello, who has demonstrated a lack of conviction and courage.

Win or lose, Howard is finished. On balance, there is more to gain from a change in leadership now, than no change. So if the election is as good as lost, does it’s timing now matter?

We are experiencing a paradox. We are experiencing apparently economic prosperity, with growing inequality as we experience a dark age. The curtain have been drawn on the national imagination, the lights have been dimmed in the interest of the powerful and of self interest. Will this now continue with a change of government, as is at least suggested by polling?


The news is not getting better for J W Howard. The polls appear to be stuck. Nielsen, which will be published and analyzed at the usual places tomorrow does not seem to provide any good news. The best thing is for Howard to go, but the question is who is the best person to replace him?

Postscript: 10 September 2007 

There is public polling and internal party polling. The secret intelligence is apparently more encouraging than that publicly available. According to Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald:

The Government believes is has a good message to sell. There are some who still think it can beat Labor. The internal polling shows it ahead of Labor in a majority of seats.

Of course, that is true, it is not how much you win by, but how many seats you win. But I dunno about the polls being so consistently wrong, for so long a time.



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