CONSERVATIVES WIN IN CANADA? January 24, 2006Posted by wmmbb in Global Electoral Politics.
The Progressive Conservatives have won the most seats in the Canadian House of Commons without obtaining a majority of the representation, as reported by the BBC. This can be hardly seen as a ringing endorsement given the first past the post voting system. It is interesting to note that the minor parties – NDP and Block Quebecois – have jointly more seats than either of the major parties. Nor is there a process for negotiating for the support of minor parties to carry supply, as happened in New Zealand, or the prospect of a grand coalition, as took effect in Germany.
But the Conservatives have made a comeback as illustrated here:
*Increased to 15 seats in 2002 after two by-elections and the admission of a New Democrat MP
**Reduced to 98 after defection of an MP
A grain of 25 seats under normal conditions would normally get them into a majority, with a significant swing to their favor, but it seems that the minor parties held, while the Liberals lost seats.Just looking at the seats, the support of the NDP and the Independent, would still give the Liberals a bare majority, and I am assuming that all the seats have now been counted.
There is more, and better informed comment, at Larvatus Prodeo.
24/01/2006 – Anybody can make a mistake, and it seems as the BBC has done in this case. However, I could have checked the figures, rather than assuming they were correct. It appears the NDP obtained 29 seats in the House of Commons, and Block Quebecois 51 and not 103, otherwise the figures do not compute. The Sydney Morning Herald had the correct allocation of seats. Then again, as the thought flickered across my time at the time, had this been the situation, the Liberals would have certainly looked into it, subject to the politcal stance and temperament of the independent, who in that case might have found himself (or herself) speaker.