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PREDICTIONS FOR 2005 December 31, 2004

Posted by wmmbb in Category to be ascribed.
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If I recall last year I achieved a 50% result. Crean to go as opposition leader, and Howard to go- it should have been on and on – as prime minister. This, I know, amounts to cheating. Things this year are far less clear cut.

I do not envisage Howard as going this year. Many backbencher no hoppers consider they were elected on his shirt tails – which perhaps they were. I will be happily wrong by I am expecting that John Howard will be prime minister at the end of the year.

Latham’s position is less secure. It was not a good look for senior members of the party to desert him to the backbench. The question the ALP must decide is does Latham have what it takes, if not to return the party to power at the next election, but build the party for the longer term. In my opinion this is a big opportunity for the ALP to get its act together. So I am predicting that Latham will go as opposition leader. I am at a lost as to know who will replace him.

I am anticipating that Andrew Robb and Malcolm Turnbull will be promoted to Cabinet, on the basis that Howard will realize that some of the people there are not cutting the mustard. Following the family tradition Turnbull might be appointed Attorney-General. The promotion of Robb is more likely than Turnbull, and what post he could best fill I have not a clue.

Blair, because of weak opposition will be returned as the British prime minister, although he will obviously lose seats, and I not sure what the division in the Labor Party about Iraq will have. At the other end of the world, although not a certainty, the Maori vote will be significant, Helen Clarke will be re-elected.

The Iraqi elections will go ahead. Regardless of who gets the numbers, the main aim of the majority parties will be remove the Americans. Bush is mentally fixated so he will continue his Iraq policies, perhaps by the end of the year making things far worst than they are now.

Sometimes wishful thinking comes into these predictions. On this note, I forecast that we will all maintain our commitment to helping the tsunami victims, regardless of country of birth or social class.

Here is a long shot. David Hicks and the other inmates of Camp X-ray at Guantanamo Bay will be released, and then win their suit against the US Government.

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