DUCKPOND

The symbolic moment of the storming of the Bastille is not forgotten in Paris, as it seems to be in other parts of the world. Now that event was a mere 219 years ago, but was it the significant change it is made out to be?
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A general election was held in Italy on April 13 and April 14, 2008 after the President dissolved parliament on February 6, 2008. Romano Prodi’s left-centre coalition had been defeated in a January Senate vote. Now it seems that Berlusconi and his coalition, including the Northern League and the post-Fascist, National Alliance , have won a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
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On reflection being one day late for the Revolution does not, and would not, have made a difference. True political revolutions are long in the making,with ramifications and implications that extend beyond their symbolic moments. It is enough that they have set the stage, established paradigms for the political actions that have gone before, even when our memory fails us, or our awareness does not serve us.
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Blair has finally stood down as UK Prime Minister. Al Jazeera provides a chronology of his time as Prime Minister. His final statement in the House of Commons: “I wish everyone, friend or foe, well and that is that, the end.”

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The elections took place, and then it took days to count the vote, now it has taken weeks to negotiate a government coalition. The Greens along with the Progressive Democrats have decided to join with Bertie Ahern’s Fianna Fail. Consistent with his promise the leader of the Greens at the election has stood done.

The Independent has the story:
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The BBC reports that with 81% of the vote counted, the Socialists and the opposition Popular Party have retained their strongholds, with the Socialists holding a slight lead overall. The interesting aspect of these elections is the development at the margins in which British and German candidates are standing, often on anti-corruption platforms.

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The Irish election was held on Thursday, and the results will not be clear until this morning. So what is going on?

The ABC Online got it right. It is going to be a close result, even as the participation was up this time compared to the last election five years ago. The Jamaica Gleaner reports:

Irish voters headed for the polls [on Thursday] in an election so close that Prime Minister Bertie Ahern may have to lure a major left-leaning opponent on to his side if he is to stay in power.

Having repeatedly ruled out entering a coalition with Ahern, Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte left the door open to a deal, telling Reuters he did not look forward to the prospect but that he was keen to keep IRA political ally Sinn Fein out of power.”I don’t want to see Sinn Fein driving economic policies or other policies,” Rabbitte said in an interview after casting his vote in his Dublin constituency.Sinn Fein, which entered a ground-breaking power-sharing government in partitioned Northern Ireland this month, is set to make gains in the election in the south after Irish Republican Army (IRA) guerrillas vowed to down arms in 2005.

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Balancing Act: Photo via Deutsche Wella

Of course it is precarious to make such an observations, but so far the unity of the German Grand Coalition between the major parties of the right and left has held. Kudos must be given for this result to Chancellor Merkel, an apparently effective female leader but not in the Thatcher mold, and the first German leader since reunification from the East. In most political systems a coalition between the major political parties of the right and left would not be possible, except in times of national emergency such as wartime.

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The indications are, according to this BBC report, that voters are turning out for the Second Round of the French Presidential election. This sounds like good news for Royal since her coalition has more parties. However, it seems to me crucial as to who effectively wins the middle ground, the voters who opted for Bayrou in the first round. I am no expert but I inclined to think that Sarkozy has the inside running in this election. According to Deutsche Wella opinion polls give Sarkozy a 10% lead.

We will probably know tomorrow morning.

The result is now in. It appears that Nicholas Sarkozy has won over Segolene Royal by 53% of the vote to 47%, so a comprehensive victory, with 85% of registered voters casting a ballot. The BBC reports that the centre was not decisive, with the result in the Second Round pretty much reflecting what had happened in the First:

Polls suggest that they each won over 40% of the Bayrou voters, and that 20% did not cast a ballot in round two.

 

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The Scottish National Party achieved the majority of seats in the Holyrood Parliament. Now it is has to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and the two Green members, or be outflanked in the coalition forming stakes by Labour. The issue for the SNP in forming coalitions with other parties evolve around its plan to hold a referendum on Scottish independence.

The vote took place on Thursday, which might go some way to explaining the low turnout of less that 49%. There were problems with invalid votes and voting machines. There is possible legal action.
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There are two rounds in the French system. In the first round the twelve candidates effectively compete for the top two positions, and then there is a run-off election about two weeks later to determine the successful candidate for president. They could adopt preferential voting and save themselves the trouble and cost of holding two polls.

The BBC is reporting that early turnout is high, and that this will be one of the most unpredictable elections in decades.

As far as I can tell Nicholas Sarkozy of the UMP, Segolene Royal of the Socialists and Francois Bayrou of the UDF are the leading candidates, with the latter two fighting out the second spot. More people than ever have decided to register to vote making the intermediate and final outcomes more unpredictable.

One of the interesting things about this election, as reported by Deutsche Wella is:

For the first time in a presidential election, some of the 44.5 million registered French voters cast their ballots on electronic voting machines — an innovation that appeared to meet with general approval.

“I was a bit apprehensive at first,” said Yvette Lalanne, 70, in the southwestern city of Toulouse. “But, in fact it’s pretty simple and quick and, I hope, reliable.”

UPDATE:

According to the BBC, Sarkozy got almost 31%, Royal 25%. Bayrou 18% and Le Pen 11%. That is 85% of the voters supported the leading four candidates. Despite what I suggested the voting system does effect outcomes and electoral tactics. According to Daniel Cohen-Bendit speaking on DW(video), Sarkozy was positioning himself against Le Pen in the first round. Francois Hollande (Segolene Royal’s husband), the leader of the Socialist Party, notes that Royal got more 10% support that their candidate last time and more than Mitterrand in 1981. The uncertainty is in the level of turnout for the next round and how the votes will be distributed. My guess is that Sarkozy has done well and is well positioned to win the second ballot, although some commentators are suggesting that Bayrou’s vote will split 50-50 (whereas I would have expected 60-40).

The deciding second round will be on 6 May.

The French Presidential Campaign seems to have been going on for sometime. Easter is the official beginning. I am surprised that voters in France have a choice as to registering to vote. Compulsory registration is so ingrained that it becomes an assumption I do not think about. Getting people to sign onto the electoral rolls, is a reason for starting the campaign early. There are twelve candidates, with three having a realistic chance of succeeding, according to Deutsche Wella.

Unlike the Americans, we can always learn how others run their elections. Amongst other things all the candidates get access to television, which as reported is not an unqualified merit:

Broadcasters are also now legally obliged to spread coverage of each candidate equally around the clock, strictly dividing interview time and reports on their campaigns.

 

In an editorial, the French daily Liberation warned the rules were based on “a neutrality that is as hypocritical as it is fictitious” and had “no chance of clearing the record levels of indecision that is the hallmark of this 2007 election.”

 

“The 12 candidates will have the same space to develop their ideas, when only three of them — Sarkozy, Royal and Bayrou — have any chance of applying them as president.”

 

The paper also complained that the rules would make the “television campaign about as sexy as reading the telephone book.”

The presence of Segolene Royal in the race, as much as the candidacy of Hilary Clinton in the US, will attract attention because of gender politics. Electoral systems come into play. If my memory is correct the Chilean system is modeled on the French,  and  Germany and New Zealand have similar systems. My sense is that Ms Royal is not travelling well.

Setting a precedent 10,000 of Estonia’s one million voters exercised the option to vote online. In a narrow election the Reform Party defeated the Centre Party, and so far nobody is calling for a recount. It seems to have worked. The report is carried by Deutche Wella.

I may say if it were allowed here, and our next election will be on March 24, I would miss the social outing of walking down the street to local primary school going in, voting and checking out what the kids are up in school these days.

The story of the holocaust denier given five years prison does seem extraordinary, especially when coupled with the fact that he was extradited from Canada where he had an anti-Jewish website. He seems to have a hagiographic view of Adolf Hitler, which surely is an opinion, not a crime. As the incumbent of the rotating EU Presidency, Germany now wants other countries to adopt smilar laws.

We  seem to be imprisioned by our histories, in particular Australia, Russia and Germany. To deny the suffering and brutal death of large numbers of people is offensive, but is not the same thing happening in Iraq, where the number of Iraqi deaths seem not to matter. I would suggest the denial of Aboriginal deaths by a government and its leaders is worst.

Fascism is on the rise, or at least the methods of fascism and they flow from the actions of government politicies and decisions, and those governments call themselves democracies. The ability of Hilter idolators to influence the social climate and public policy is negligible.

Still to be a population and to be defeated in war, is I imagine a seering experience, and quite reasonably, if only for reasons of self respect, it is understandable that Germans would not want that to happen again. It is a pity that the populations in the US and Australia do not fully appreciate the potential full implications and ramification of some policies a majority of their voters have supported – but in reality that might always be the case.

Still Germany is not merely living in the shadow of its history. Chancellor Merkel seems to running with the baton on matters European that Blair once believed he held.