And who is listening? Some weeks ago P Costello was warning about the financial tsunami that was going to be generated by the floating of the Yuan, and therefore it was necessary to have the experienced hands on the tiller of the 1.1 Trillion dollar economy – which I think may refer to the gross national product. Last Monday, George Soros gave a speech to New York University in which he said that the US economy is “on the verge of a very serious correction” caused by excessive borrowing and spending on the Iraq War.

Soros agrees with P Costello, except that he suggests the call on China is early. Reuters reports:

Soros said that, for now, China is the “absolute winner” in economic terms, and will continue to see its economy soaring during the next few years.

“Now it is going through this fantastic transformation but in 10 years time I think you may well have a financial crisis in China,” he said.

In the meantime, perhaps our trusted and tested national economic managers might be forewarning us of the consequences of a possible US economic meltdown, which might very well of far greater magnitude of than the Chinese one. Still, I suppose, Bush has over a year to go and that is time enough to launch the war against Iran, which will be a nice distraction if nothing else.

Duckpond has come down with a severe case of food poisoning He hopes to have recovered in the next two r three days, provided the diet of water, water, lemonade and dry biscuits works.

Or is it the shootout at the OK Corral? As far as I can tell the “liberal-biased media” are calling for Bush aide, Carl Rove and others to appear under oath before the Senate Judiciary Committee and they are calling in unison for the resignation of Attorney-General, Alberto Gonzales. The president is evoking “executive privilege”, which taken to its conclusion would create a constitutional crisis to be resolved by the Supreme Court. This matter has arisen from the firing of eight US attorneys, lawyers appointed by the president, and has involved an unprecedented link of numerous emails from the Department of Justice.

Just minutes ago, The New York Times reported:

The Senate Judiciary Committee today authorized the issuing of subpoenas that would summon Karl Rove and several other top Bush administration officials to Capitol Hill to testify under oath about the dismissals of eight federal prosecutors.

The step, taken on a voice vote of the committee, came a day after a House Judiciary subcommittee passed a similar measure.

Last minute compromise anyone? A “surge” perhaps?

Some days ago my nephew decided to marry. I gather as well as coping with Bhasa and Arabic, he became a muslim. Our extended family, I know it is a bit distant from me, now has an Indonesian link.

Since we all live in this part of the world, such connections might prove useful now and in the future.

The word “family” is used in a loose sense. Michael is my sister’s son, which just might make him family. But second cousins, for instance, are in another independent orbit.

I made predictions for the coming year in 2004 and 2005, and I was not too far wrong because I tried to pick well established trends. For the upcoming year I will try again.

The polls are showing the Iemma Labor Government in NSW is holding a decided edge over the opposition. The odds are stacked against the Liberals, but I would expect that they will make significant gains in the March State Elections, at least at the expense of the independents. Their numbers were cut back in the last State election which was held in the fog of war prior to the invasion of Iraq. All things being equal the Liberals should do better. Their situation illustrates the difficulties that opposition leaders face cutting through the government’s spin doctoring. It looks like Labor will be returned in NSW, which is not good news for Labor’s Federal prospects.

Age must eventually catch up with Howard, and I expect that this issue, with the unsettled question of his successor, will be the ghost at the party during the Federal Election, probably in November. Howard will have to go at some time, so why should it not be this year? The fact that the “work choices legislation” is an issue in the letters page of the Sydney Morning Herald would concern me, if I was a liberal strategist. As we all know Howard is not above playing the race card again, and I expect that perceived card will have Muslim written on it, suggesting that developments – or the lack of them – in the Middle East may impact on the Australian election.

The Senate will again be a lottery for final places. This time around the ALP might be more careful as how it directs the flow of votes to the minor parties, given that most people will vote above the line. My understanding the numbers suggest it is a safe bet that the Liberals will remain the majority party in the Senate.

Oppositions do not lose elections, so much as the times move against governments, and people tire of them. They can get around this by setting up phony issues, such as refugees and racism. Generally, it is true, at least in my opinion, if you maintain your principles the times will eventually suit you. For example, I do not know what will happen with interest rates, which are nominally outside their control, could damage the government’s chances. I think that Work Place Legislation will damage, simply because it is contrary to the interests of employees, and if it does not it will demonstrate that the low paid have become marginalized without an effective political voice, which in the long term will be damaging to Australian democracy.

The Australian Government has no control or influence over what happens in the Middle East, more particularly in Iraq. The probability is that the stupidity of the Bush policy will not change leading to greater disaster in Iraq, resignations from the Bush Cabinet, or both. When we hear the Green Zone being attacked in a significant way, then we will know the game is over.

The British are expected to make significant cut backs in the numbers of troops in Iraq toward the middle of the year, when Blair finally, at long last leaves the scene. No doubt to maintain absurdity to the end, he will be endeavouring to make himself relevant to the end. As a consequence Britain will turn to Europe.

The Europeans, and the Russians with the Chinese, will not tolerate an American attack, or Israeli attack on Iran. The defeat in Iraq will have grave consequences for the American empire, not least in the need of Europe to stand up united. By the end of the year recriminations in the United States will begin over “who lost the Middle East”, but rather “who lost America”.

Asia and Africa will continue on their set paths, I expect. China will have to exercise influence over the North Koreans.

As for myself, by sheer luck I somehow survived this year, much in the way that George Bush did, except that he faces a Congress with Democratic majorities, and that must make a difference. Similarly, winging it, may just come unstuck for me, as for him.

Postscript: 01/01/2007

There are, of course, predictions elsewhere. I am trying to predict trends that are likely to continue, but I do not have a quantative basis for them. I suppose my predictions are not remarkable, just guesses.

John Simpson at the BBC has a set of predictions for the Middle East. The regular contributors at Democracy Now have pronostications – via Mark at Larvatus Prodeo.

Kevin Drum notes that the 16 December is Ludwig’s birthday, and the recommendation here is Fifth Piano Concerto in E flat, Opus 73 (“The Emperor”). It is as well I have guidance in these matters.

My musical intelligence is poor, but I often wonder why people write songs whose phrasing creates problems for lesser singers, and not least the writers themselves. Examples of songs, include Bob Dylan’s “Knock, Knocking on Heaven’s Door”, and “Always on My Mind”. Some singers manage the phrasing, without yelling, or stumbling over the words, but remain lesser singers.

Another coup in Fiji, despite its slow and steady gestation, is detrimental and disappointing for all the people of that country. I suspect that this is a coup driven by monomania, not public support.

Mark gets to check out a bunch of references at Larvatus Prodeo.

My suspicion is that this coup represents a failure of the indigenous elites, including the Council of Chiefs and the Military leadership.

CODA:

And talking of elites, or in her case anti-elitism, Pauline Hanson is promising us a return to the national political stage, according to The Sydney Morning Herald, so we can once again avail of her informed opinions and prejudices.

Every so often I spot a quiz that might reveal my less than perfect knowledge, as in these test questions US citizenship, via Modulator.

In the real life situation, the test is oral and there are not multiple choices, adding to its difficulty. With multi-choice there is always the chance the interviewee can take a punt and perhaps get the right answer.

I got question 7 and 12 wrong, and question 8 was a pure guess, so all is not as it seems.

The point was well made two weeks ago here when it was suggested, among other considerations, that two dogs provide company for each other. From now on, for days,weeks, or whatever, we will increasing have to leave Sasha and Dexter on their own at home.

Our concern is with what might happen to Dexter if he got out, which I think is realistically less likely now than when we first got him. Sasha has a spirit of adventure, if given a chance, but is less of a concern. Building dog-proof fencing is not my strong suit, and it seems difficult to get professional fencers. Without sound fencing there will always be ground for concern.

I will not speculate on the general lack of criticism of the photo selection, but I can tell you there are no restraints when it comes to in-house criticism. Of course, up to this point, Sasha and Dexter have not directly expressed a view.

Shade and satisfaction. 26 November 2006

Two is company. 26 November 2006

Sharing the moment. 26 November 2006.

Rolling the tongue. 26 November 2006

Side by side. 29 November 2006

Happiness realized. 29 November 2006.

Four eyes are better than two. 29 November 2006.

A glint to the eye. 30 November 2006

Dexter on dog alert. 30 November 2006.

Two ways to go. 30 November 2006.

Catching the early morning sun. 01 December 2006.

Time for moving on. 01 December 2006.

To enlarge the photos click on to them.

Modulator is featuring Friday Ark #115 and Mickey’s Musings The Carnival of the Dogs. Sasha and Dexter will be pleased to board and to join as the caravan moves on.

Friday Night Dog Blog is crossposted at the blogger and word press versions of Duckpond.

“We have peoples reputations at stake . . . I’m the decider and I decide what is best . . .”

And the decider immediately changes his mind following the midterm elections:

“I did not want to make a major decision in the final days of the campaign. The only way to answer that question, and get it on to another question, was to give you that answer.”

“In other words, he lied to the press for political purposes”, via Truthdig.

In times past,  for voters to cross check whether a politician lied, it was almost always necessary to check the written record, now they can refer to the video record. This idea could catch on.