US ELECTORAL PROGNOSTICATIONS November 7, 2012Posted by wmmbb in US Politics.
Semantics aside, Nate Silver at his blog, Five Thirty Eight at The New York Times is forecasting that Mitt Romney has a 8.4% chance of winning the US presidential election.
Still I suppose a 20/1 horse can win the Melbourne Cup, but this, rightly or wrongly, is a two-horse race. In this case the chances of winning reflect polling, which necessarily must be an inexact science, if only because people can choose to vote, and even if they do vote given the vote suppression activity in some critical states, there vote can be tossed in the bin by election officials which apparently is not subjected to any audit process.
Nate Silver gained credibility in the election forecasting calling by predicting with great accuracy the results of the last Congressional Elections. He has the Electoral College with 314 to Obama and 223 to Romney. A candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to be elected. Yet the overall national vote, on this forecast, shows Obama with 50.9% – a bare absolute majority. What matters is the result in the Electoral College.
The US is a country of contradictions and contrasts. Astronauts can vote from space, but people on the ground can be bullied and have their ballots discarded without their knowledge.
Mitt Romney has broken with tradition continuing to campaign on election day. Rachel Streitfeld for CNN reports:
Mitt Romney will not spend the final hours of the presidential race in his hometown, as is traditional for a candidate, but instead will embark upon a last-minute push for votes in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The two Election Day campaign stops, which were added to the schedule Monday afternoon, cap off a campaign season of upheaval, unconventional moves and late-in-the-game surges that make Tuesday’s outcome difficult to predict.
There are those who identify democracy with voting, and persist in the face of reality grasping onto the debris of an empty shell of constitutional rights and an inflated legacy of hope over experience. Sure, sail on, oh mighty ship of state. Democracy is Coming to the USA:
Still the horse race has its attraction. The two narratives are told, suggesting that the election will be a cliff hanger, and the other that Obama will be returned overwhelmingly. If the later, the Silver prognosis, turn out to be right, then what happened to all the money that was spent on behalf of Romney? It might be better to punt on the Melbourne Cup. It seems that the media companies, the news organizations, have made off with a windfall.
- TV Reports Ignore Electoral College to Promote Horse Race Scenario (offonatangent.blogspot.com)
- US Election day live: Polls set to open on D-Day for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney (woleademola.wordpress.com)
- FiveThirtyEight: Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
- What exactly is the Electoral College? (wptv.com)
- Taking the pulse of Nate Silver’s numbers (cbsnews.com)
- 7 Prognosticators With Good News for Nervous Obama Fans (motherjones.com)