CONSTITUTIONAL PROPOSAL

The Prime Minister will today receive a proposal to amend the Australian Constitutionto recognize Aboriginal people of this continent.

For the most part, the proposed amendment seems to have attracted bipartisan support and therefore, given the precedent set by 1967, the chances of being successful appear good. The proposal has been suggested by a panel. George Williams in The Sydney Morning Herald describes the sections that require change:

Unfortunately, two sections remain that treat people unequally because of their race. The first is section 25. It still recognises that the states can disqualify people, such as Aborigines, from voting.

The races power in section 51 (26) also says that the Federal Parliament can make laws based upon a person’s race. This was put into the constitution in 1901 to prevent Asians, Pacific Islanders and other races from living in areas reserved for whites or from taking up certain occupations. In the words of Sir Edmund Barton, Australia’s first prime minister, the section permits laws that ”regulate the affairs of the people of coloured or inferior races”.

The panel will recommend that these two provisions be deleted. Disagreement arises as to what should be inserted into the constitution in place of the races power. It should not simply be repealed. An important achievement of the 1967 referendum was to extend this power to Aboriginal people so that the Federal Parliament could make laws for them in areas such as land and health.

The best way forward is the panel’s likely recommendation to replace the races power with new federal authority to make laws for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

The hard question is how to limit this new power. Unless it is restricted, laws might still be passed that discriminate against Aboriginal people on the basis of their race.

So far so good, until we get to a hard question, which suggests to me the chances of the amendment passing the referendum hurdles become more difficult.

The Republic had bipartisan support, but that, as has been true before, was not enough:

Consider the results to the 1997 Republic Referendum, via the Australian Electoral Commission:

And if you think this is overly pessimistic consider the results achieved since Federation:
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Referendum dates and results 1906 – present

Updated: 6 June 2011

Subject/Proposal	Issue of Writ	Polling Day	Result	States that Voted in Favour	% of Votes in Favour
Senate Elections To enable elections for both Houses to be held concurrently	8 November 1906	12 December 1906	Carried	All	82.65
Finance To implement the agreement to allow the Commonwealth to make a fixed payment out of surplus revenue to the States according to population. This was to replace the arrangement where the Commonwealth returned three-quarters of net revenue to the States	28 February 1910	13 April 1910	Not Carried	Qld, WA, Tas	49.04
State Debts To give the Commonwealth unrestricted power to take over State debts	28 February 1910	13 April 1910	Carried	All except NSW	54.95
*Legislative Powers To extend the Commonwealth’s powers over trade, commerce, the control of corporations, labour and employment, including wages and conditions; and the settling of disputes; and combinations and monopolies	15 March 1911	26 April 1911	Not Carried	WA	39.42
*Monopolies To give power to the Commonwealth to nationalise monopolies.	15 March 1911	26 April 1911	Not Carried	WA	39.89
Trade and Commerce	24 April 1913	31 May 1913	Not Carried	Qld, WA, SA	49.38
Corporations	24 April 1913	31 May 1913	Not Carried	Qld, WA, SA	49.33
Industrial Matters	24 April 1913	31 May 1913	Not Carried	Qld, WA, SA	49.33
Railway Disputes	24 April 1913	31 May 1913	Not Carried	Qld, WA, SA	49.13
Trusts	24 April 1913	31 May 1913	Not Carried	Qld, WA, SA	49.78
Nationalisation of Monopolies	24 April 1913	31 May 1913	Not Carried	Qld, WA, SA	49.33
Legislative Powers To seek temporary extension of Commonwealth legislative powers over Trade and Commerce, Corporations, Industrial matters and Trusts	3 November 1919	13 December 1919	Not Carried	Vic, Qld, WA	49.65
Nationalisation of Monopolies To seek power for the commonwealth to make laws with respect to monopolies	3 November 1919	13 December 1919	Not Carried	Vic, Qld, WA	48.64
*Industry and Commerce To authorise the creation of authorities to control the terms and conditions of industrial employment, to give State authorities similar powers to Commonwealth authorities, and to regulate and control trusts and combinations	26 July 1926	4 September 1926	Not Carried	NSW, Qld	43.50
*Essential Services to allow the Commonwealth to take measures to protect thepublic against interruption of essential services	26 July 1926	4 September 1926	Not Carried	NSW, Qld	42.80
State Debts to end the system of per capita payments which have been made by the Commonwealth to the States since 1910, and to restrict the right of each State to borrow for its own development by subjecting that borrowing to control by a loan council	9 October 1928	17 November 1928	Carried	All	74.30
*Aviation to give the Commonwealth power to legislate on air navigation and aircraft	4 February 1937	6 March 1937	Not Carried	Vic, Qld	53.56
*Marketing to give theCommonwealth power to legislate on marketing	4 February 1937	6 March 1937	Not Carried	None	36.26
*Post-war Reconstruction and Democratic Rights to give the Commonwealth power, for a period of five years, to legislate on 14 specific matters, including the rehabilitation of ex-servicemen, national health, family allowances and ‘the people of the Aboriginal race’	4 July 1944	19 August 1944	Not Carried	WA, SA	45.99
Social Services to give the Commonwealth power to legislate on a wide range of social services	21 August 1946	28 September 1946	Carried	All	54.39
Organised Marketing of Primary Products to allow the Commonwealth to make laws for the organised marketing of primary products	21 August 1946	28 September 1946	Not Carried	NSW, Vic, WA	50.57
Industrial Employment to give the Commonwealth power to legislate on terms and conditions of industrial employment	21 August 1946	28 September 1946	Not Carried	NSW, Vic, WA	50.30
*Rent and Prices to give the Commonwealth permanent power to control rents and prices	12 April 1948	29 May 1948	Not Carried	None	40.66
*Powers to Deal with Communists and Communism to give the Commonwealth powers to make laws in respect of communists and communism	10 August 1951	22 September 1951	Not Carried	Qld, WA, Tas	49.44
*Parliament to increase the number of Members of the House of Representatives without necessarily increasing the number of Senators	28 April 1967	27 May 1967	Not Carried	NSW	40.25
*Aboriginals to enable the Commonwealth to enact laws for Aborigines. To remove the prohibition against counting aboriginal people in population counts in the Commonwealth or a State.	28 April 1967	27 May 1967	Carried	All	90.77
*Prices to give powers to the Commonwealth to control prices	12 November 1973	8 December 1973	Not Carried	None	43.81
*Incomes to give powers to the Commonwealth to legislate on incomes	12 November 1973	8 December 1973	Not Carried	None	34.42
Simultaneous Elections to hold elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives on the same day	20 April 1974	18 May 1974	Not Carried	NSW	48.30
Mode of Altering the Constitution to give a vote in referendums to electors in the ACT and the Northern Territory, and to enable amendments to be made to the Constitution if approved by a majority of voters and a majority of voters in half the States	20 April 1974	18 May 1974	Not Carried	NSW	47.99
Democratic Elections to make population instead of electors, as at present, the basis of determining the average size of electorates in each State	20 April 1974	18 May 1974	Not Carried	NSW	47.20
Local Government Bodies to give the Commonwealth powers to borrow money for, and to make financial assistance grants directly to, any local government body	20 April 1974	18 May 1974	Not Carried	NSW	46.85
*Simultaneous Elections to ensure that Senate elections are held at the same time as House of Representatives elections	27 April 1977	21 May 1977	Not Carried	NSW, Vic, SA	62.22
*Senate Casual Vacancies to ensure, as far as practicable, that a casual vacancy in the Senate is filled by a person of the same political party as the Senator chosen by the people, and that the person shall hold the seat for the balance of the term	27 April 1977	21 May 1977	Carried	All	73.32
*Referendums – Territories to allow electors in Territories, as well as in the States, to vote in constitutational referendums	27 April 1977	21 May 1977	Carried	All	77.72
*Retirement of Judges to provide for retiring ages for judges of Federal courts	27 April 1977	21 May 1977	Carried	All	80.10
Terms of Senators to change the terms of Senators so that they are no longer fixed, and to provide that the election for both Houses are always on the same day	26 October 1984	1 December 1984	Not Carried	NSW, Vic	50.64
Interchange of Powers to enable the Commonwealth and the States voluntarily to refer powers to each other	26 October 1984	1 December 1984	Not Carried	None	47.06
*Parliamentary Terms to provide for 4 year maximum terms for members of both Houses of the Commonwealth Parliament	25 July 1988	3 September 1988	Not Carried	None	32.92
*Fair Elections to provide for fair and democratic parliamentary elections throughout Australia	25 July 1988	3 September 1988	Not Carried	None	37.60
*Local Government to recognise local government in the Constitution	25 July 1988	3 September 1988	Not Carried	None	33.62
*Rights and Freedoms to extend the right to trial by jury, to extend freedom of religion, and to ensure fair terms for persons whose property is acquired by any government	25 July 1988	3 September 1988	Not Carried	None	30.79
*Republic To alter the Constitution to establish the Commonwealth of Australia as a republic with the Queen and Governor-General being replaced by a President appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Commonwealth Parliament	1 October 1999	6 November 1999	Not Carried	None	45.13
*Preamble To alter the Constitution to insert a preamble	1 October 1999	6 November 1999	Not Carried	None	39.34

Note:* indicates a referendum that was not held in conjunction with an election

Source: 2008 Parliamentary Handbook. Parliamentary Library

It would appear that even straightforward questions have been lost. Of course 1967 is a remarkable exception, but the international pressures in play then with Apartheid South Africa do not apply today.

UPDATE:

ABC News records the PM receiving the report from Mick Dodson.  The Opposition Leader commented according to the text:

“We have some reservations about anything that might turn out to be a one-clause bill of rights,” Mr Abbott said.

“But we accept that millions of Australians’ hopes and dreams are resting on constitutional recognition of Indigenous people, and the last thing I want to do is do anything other than welcome this report today.”

The ABC includes a copy of the Report.