DUCKPOND

POLLS TURN AGAINST GILLARD July 31, 2010

Irony upon ironies, the new beaut leader of the ALP has fallen behind, and it seems voters are preferring a Tony Abbott led Liberal Party to be next government.

Things can change. The hardheads of the ALP might be scratching their heads. Strike a light they may even see themselves as the problem. At The Drum, Mark Bahnisch comments on the latest Nielsen Poll:

It’s the stuff of nightmares for Labor strategists.

With Labor’s primary on 36% and a Coalition primary of 45% (The Greens on 12%), the 9 point gap is close to the advantage John Howard had over Mark Latham’s ALP in the 2004 election.

Nielsen finds that the gender gap has disappeared, and (admittedly on a small sample), older voters have turned against Labor.

I commented earlier in the week that the latest Cabinet leak was designed specifically to erode Julia Gillard’s credibility among women and pensioners. That may have been its effect.

You can see why the ALP wanted Kevin Rudd back on the campaign trail outside Griffith.

Galaxy, in a poll taken on Wednesday night, had Labor on a primary of 37%, with the Coalition on 43. That’s Kim Beazley territory, circa 2001.

These polls are not definitive, of course, but it should be clear by now that the trend is towards the Coalition.

That’s despite anything they’ve done, other than have a disciplined Tony Abbott turn up to capitalise on the government’s woes, as I argued the other day.

Labor needs to turn this position around quickly. It’s hard to see how they can. Their campaign is designed to defend a lead, and the fiscal straight jacket they’ve made for themselves, in response to the Liberals’ debt and deficit message, limits their room to move on policy.

Unlike Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott has had experience of a national campaign before in which he was successful with a negative role, and that was the Republic Referendum. Actually, I think Tone is the stuff of nightmares as Prime Minister. Furthermore, as a non-participant observer, a non-television watcher, I am in no position to judge the election, other than, it seems to me, to engage the electorate in the critical policy debates, in particular relating to climate change.

In the US, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released a report in which they track ten key indicators suggesting Global Warming is the reality. Richard Farmer at Crikey was the source for this reference. The report notes:

The 2009 State of the Climate report released today draws on data for 10 key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.

Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

“For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis brings together multiple observational records from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The records come from many institutions worldwide. They use data collected from diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming,”

The report emphasizes that human society has developed for thousands of years under one climatic state, and now a new set of climatic conditions are taking shape. These conditions are consistently warmer, and some areas are likely to see more extreme events like severe drought, torrential rain and violent storms.

“Despite the variability caused by short-term changes, the analysis conducted for this report illustrates why we are so confident the world is warming,” said Peter Stott, Ph.D., contributor to the report and head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution of the United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre. “When we look at air temperature and other indicators of climate, we see highs and lows in the data from year to year because of natural variability. Understanding climate change requires looking at the longer-term record. When we follow decade-to-decade trends using multiple data sets and independent analyses from around the world, we see clear and unmistakable signs of a warming world.”

Abbott is climate change denier. Gillard proposes a sort of teach-in with a selected number of electors. No question that the implications of climate change require profound changes in attitudes, but there is obviously a lack of leadership. Both aspirants have demonstrated they are not up the job they seek. What to do?

It may be relevant to mention that 69% of respondents in the Nielsen Poll expected Labor to win. The first sentence here is not strictly correct, since respondents prefer Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott to be PM, but Mark is saying that the ALP is too far behind now to make up ground over the next three weeks. If true, what a spectacular failure? I suspect the campaign should benefit from more serious discussion about policy and wider involvement and engagement of the voters.