RHYMING AFGHANISTAN WITH KUMBAYA

Over the past week in Canberra, there was a sacking of the Prime Minister; in Washington it was the sacking of a General. Hierarchical top-down control is a common feature.

The case is more obviously made with the demotion of Stanley McChyrstal, who if the Rolling Stone article is to be believed was quite the rascal among a band of brothers who controlled the execution of the Afghanistan war. Obama had his Lincoln moment – so he will doubtless be cuffed. Ray McGovern, as one sideline general fighting the last lost war, attests to the precedent the new game is likely to be riding the escalator to the floor not yet built – hopefully the helicopters will be waiting.

War by its nature is a constant emergency,whereas in politics the atmosphere is best evoked by falling polls, and so the need for the hierarchical adjustment. Of course, one never notices that the polls are often franchised to the news media. I suppose we will have to wait until the opinion polls kick into the political process overthere, if that ever is to happen in the United States given the choice is ever the proposal of the Inner-Party. In the meantime, headstrong McChyrstal gave a less than glowing account of the way things are going in Afghanistan to the European allies, as reported by Jonathan Owen and Brian Brady in The Independent:

Details of General McChrystal’s grim assessment of his own strategy’s current effectiveness emerged as the world’s most powerful leaders set the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, a five-year deadline to improve security and governance in his country.

The G8 summit in Toronto called for “concrete progress” within five years on improving the justice system and for Afghan forces to assume greater responsibility for security. David Cameron said a “political surge” must now complement the military one.

But the “campaign overview” left behind by General McChrystal after he was sacked by President Barack Obama last week warned that only a fraction of the areas key to long-term success are “secure”, governed with “full authority”, or enjoying “sustainable growth”. He warned of a critical shortage of “essential” military trainers needed to build up Afghan forces – of which only a fraction is classed as “effective”.

He pinpointed an “ineffective or discredited” Afghan government and a failure by Pakistan “to curb insurgent support” as “critical risks” to success. “Waning” political support and a “divergence of coalition expectations and campaign timelines” are among the key challenges faced, according to the general.

It was this briefing, according to informed sources, as much as the Rolling Stone article, which convinced Mr Obama to move against the former head of US Special Forces, as costs soar to $7bn a month and the body count rises to record levels, because it undermined the White House political team’s aim of pulling some troops out of Afghanistan in time for the US elections in 2012. In addition to being the result of some too-candid comments in a magazine article, the President’s decision to dispense with his commander was seen by the general’s supporters as a politically motivated culmination of their disagreements.

General McChrystal’s presentation to Nato defence ministers and Isaf representatives provided an uncompromising obstacle to Mr Obama’s plan to bring troops home in time to give him a shot at a second term, according to senior military sources. The general was judged to be “off message” in his warning to ministers not to expect quick results and that they were facing a “resilient and growing insurgency”.

It came as mounting casualties added to US and UK discomfort. June has been the bloodiest month for coalition forces since the conflict began, with 88 killed. A soldier from 4th Regiment Royal Artillery died yesterday in hospital in Birmingham of wounds sustained in an explosion on 10 June. He had been on patrol with members of the Afghan National Army in Nahr-e Saraj North District, Helmand Province. He was the 308th British soldier killed since the start of the war nine years ago. The death toll is escalating, with 62 deaths this year – almost double the 32 that died in the same period last year.

Nato played down the chances of success. “I don’t think anyone would say we’re winning,” said a Nato spokesman. The revelations provide context to the disagreements between Mr Obama and his general, highlighted in the article in Rolling Stone in which senior White House figures were criticised.

The reality, according to a senior military source, is that General McChrystal’s candour about the reality of the situation was an obstacle to Mr Obama’s search for an “early, face-saving exit” to help his chances in the 2012 presidential elections. “Stan argued for time, and would not compromise. Rolling Stone provided an excuse for Obama to fire the opposition to his plan without having to win an intellectual argument,” he said.

It seems that McChyrstal knew his time was up, and that pretty much accounts for The Rolling Stone article. It seems to have worked a treat. As with Vietnam, Obama is attempting to run the Afghanistan war, by the election schedule in the US. The amazing thing to me, is that David Petraeus took up the offer, which in effect was demotion. A double play by Obama which nonetheless raises the question as to who is best fitted to run the Empire, the military or the presidency?

Meanwhile gleaming new Prime Minister Gillard, with her poll bounce and electoral honeymoon, has apparently delivered her unstinting support of the Obama project. So this is a suitable moment to get the rhymes flowing – Kabul, Khyer Pass, Aghanistan.

Courtesty of the Seekers here is the melody:

Could it be the the noble cause is a lost one, or might that be proved wrong by the march of history? The editorial writer in The Independent is not among the optimists:

We should make no mistake: the replacement of Gen McChrystal by David Petraeus is the beginning, the very beginning, of the end of the international coalition’s presence in Afghanistan, although it will not be admitted for a while.

ELSEWHERE:

Gary at Public Opinion takes a more measured and considered view focusing on the practical working of the McChrystal counter-insurgency strategy.