DUCKPOND

Short answer: probably not. McCain’s electoral problem, or his strategic issue, is that he is losing ground in swing states across the board.

The critical backdrop, as I see it, is that his behavior has been judged as erratic, not an unreasonable assessment, in the face of the financial crisis. The problem is that the financial crisis has trumped the race card. The economy is the top of the mind for voters. In the United States the racial divide is not a cultural divide; it is a family argument. Sarah Palin is now no longer an ace – she is a two of hearts – whereas “Fighting Joe” Biden is working with the working class, especially in Pennsylvania. Then there is the issue of mobilization of young and minority voters, especially Latinos, with the corollary of how effective the Republican voter suppression campaign will be in critical swing states such as Florida and Ohio. The larger the scale of voter disqualification necessary, the more transparent it becomes. Voter suppression depends on campaign resources something that Obama seems to have a decisive advantage.

Pollster, John Zorby is not confident that McCain can turn the election, even with three weeks to go (via BBC):

With so few opportunities to take states from his Democratic rival, Mr McCain’s most likely path for victory is to limit his losses of 2004 GOP states to Iowa. Margins remain tight, putting Mr McCain in position to win any of these critical states. Winning nearly all of them is his challenge.John McCain campaigns in Virginia, 13 Oct
Mr McCain must seek to limit his losses of 2004 Bush states to Iowa

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, this is indeed an historic and different US election. Mr Obama is the first ever African-American major party nominee.

I join most polling professionals in doubting that significant numbers of white voters are being untruthful when they say they will vote for Mr Obama (the so-called Bradley or Wilder effect).

However, measuring racial factors and how they will impact turnout and voting is one of the more difficult tasks for pollsters. How well we have done won’t be known until election day.

On the flip side, Mr Obama has obviously energised both minority and young voters, two groups that historically turn out in lower numbers.

Democrats have scored very well in registering both. If they vote in numbers that Democrats hope for, Mr McCain’s chances of running the table of contested states will be very, very slim.

Possum looked at the figures and declared, “the Moose is cooked”.

Geoff Elliott, writing in The Australian lauds McCain while illustrating the grim electoral situation he faces:

JOHN McCain hit the reset button on his faltering presidential campaign yesterday, backing away from the personal attacks on Democratic rival Barack Obama and instead making much of his fighting qualities.

The battle-scarred Vietnam veteran, 72, is starting again where it all began, leaning on his compelling biography in an 11th-hour pitch to re-establish his connection with swinging and moderate voters who have moved towards the Obama ticket in recent weeks and away from the Republican.

“I’ve been fighting for this country since I was 17 years old, and I have the scars to prove it,” Senator McCain told a rally of more than 10,000 people in the must-win state of Virginia. “If you elect me president, I will fight to take America in a new direction from my first day in office until my last.”

. . . Senior Republicans increasingly have voiced dismay over the apparent disarray in Senator McCain’s campaign but he has made a habit of improbable comebacks and he ended his speech with a trademark rallying call. “Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight,” he said. “America is worth fighting for. Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.”

. . . “We have 22 days to go. We’re six points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes,” he said. And then to roars: “My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.”

Even so, history is on the side of Senator Obama, since there is no precedent for a candidate being this far behind in national and state-by-state polls in mid October and winning in the first week of November.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll had Senator McCain down 10 points to Senator Obama, 53 per cent to 43 per cent and, worse still, showed him continuing the slip in reliably Republican states — yesterday a poll in the red state North Dakota had Senator Obama leading Senator McCain by two points.

If McCain could show greater economic credibility than Obama, who has no economic credentials either, he might have a chance, but the problem is that consensus view among economists as to what to do, and no guarantee that the bailout will work.

Now it seems Sarah is a liability. Who would have thought that possible, a mere few weeks ago? Roger Simon at Politico observes:

Sarah Palin, once seen as a huge plus to the ticket, is now increasingly emerging as a liability.

Forget that an independent legislative panel found Friday that she had abused her power and violated ethics laws as governor of Alaska. Forget that with the possibility of Palin being a heartbeat away from the presidency, McCain gives up the argument that his ticket represents experience and a steady hand on the tiller.

The real problem for McCain is that Palin is running a separate — and scary — campaign that does not seem to be under anybody’s control.

And the hometown newspaper does not buy the lies:

Sarah Palin’s reaction to the Legislature’s Troopergate report is an embarrassment to Alaskans and the nation.

She claims the report “vindicates” her. She said that the investigation found “no unlawful or unethical activity on my part.”

Her response is either astoundingly ignorant or downright Orwellian.

You might have thought that The Anchorage Daily News, via War In Context, might have shown more respect for a favourite daughter.

The Guardian reports that voter suppression tactics are being tracked by blogs as in Nevada. Such a development is so, so unexpected.

Then again perhaps the corporate media might just take another look at the McCain hero narrative. Well perhaps not, but Robert Richter has.

For McCain to shine in the next debate with Obama would more than defy the odds. I am prepared to predict it will not happen. Whistling in the dark will not cut as an election winning strategy. Americans only need to view the current occupant in the White House to realize the extent of the mistakes that can be made at the polling booths.