DUCKPOND

Australia is, as Gordon Reid observed many years ago, for all intents and purposes a frozen continent with respect to its Constitution. The provisions relating to changing the constitution make change unlikely and slow. The result is that instead of having rational democratic change, we have change from the top or change due to circumstances, usually emergencies. It is not insignificant that 1942 was a year of significant constitutional change. The vestiges of the imperial majesty still remain in the anachronism of the Governor-General (I much prefer Captain-General, the rank of Governor Phillip). Happenings in a foreign land across the seas can still have repercussions.

The latest example is that Scotland may vote by referendum, presumably decided by a simple majority to become an independent country. Those rascals the Scottish Nationalist gained government in the National Assembly and plan to hold a referendum in 2010. Elizabeth Stewart in The Independent observes:

The chances of Scotland becoming independent are not easy to predict. At the moment, polls suggest that the SNP’s popularity is high but support for independence is low. However, if the issue became a popularity contest between Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond, it could swing in the direction of independence.

It may then be a thought experiment, but let us suppose that the Scots were to chose independence as they might under the umbrella of the European Union. There would be effects felt in Europe, but we would be left with a flag, of an anachronistic flag within the flag. The same would apply to New Zealand or any other former relic of the Empire bearing the Union Jack. It should not be too difficult to fill the space with a boomerang or a kangaroo or some other symbol, and all of a sudden due to events outside our control we will have made enormous strides in the realization of national identity.

The tide of events in world history may well be gathering pace, leaving the nation state in its wake, but that is another story.

UPDATE:

Michael Fallon, The Sanitization of Scottish History has provided additional information of polling in a comment on the other Duckpond. He wrote:

This post gives a quote from an article in ‘The Independent’ newspaper which includes the following -

‘At the moment, polls suggest that the SNP’s support is high but support for independence is low.’

There was also an article in ‘The Daily Telegraph’, quoting a YouGov opinion poll, which suggested that there was only a 19% support for independence. For the benefit of the readers I would like to put this in perspective by giving extensive quotes from articles in ‘The Herald’ (printed and published in Scotland).

MONDAY APRIL 14, 2008

Salmond ‘is starting to win the argument for Scots independence’

‘The latest tracker poll by TNS System Three suggests a narrow majority in favour of independence by 41% to 40% over those who would prefer to remain in the UK, but, as in the case of another poll last week, it is the trend that tells the real story…The point about the TNS polls is that they now show a trend.

They have asked the question a Salmond government would wish to put to a referendum in 2010, a straight yes or no to the proposition: “The Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the UK so that Scotland becomes an independent state.”

Commissioned by the Sunday Herald, the first poll last August showed 50:35 support for the Union over independence. By November that had narrowed from 15 points to just four, 44:40.

Now the latest poll, conducted in the last days of March and the beginning of April puts independence support ahead.

Last week there was a similar trend in a second snapshot by Scottish Opinion. Last August, support for the Union led by 18 points, a 49:31 lead, but by this month that had narrowed to just two points, 43:41.’

SATURDAY MAY 3, 2008

Highest ratings for SNP after year in power

‘The Scottish National Party is marking the first anniversary of its election to power today, as it hits 45% in an opinion poll – its highest-ever rating and a stunning 14 points ahead of Labour.

But that support level, for the Holyrood constituency vote, is not matched by Scots’ intentions for the next Westminster election where Labour’s support is holding up – at 39%, it is eight points ahead of the SNP.

The findings, from a TNS System Three survey of 1086 voters from April 26 to 29, showed Westminster voting intentions registered 17% for Conservatives, far below the 44% secured yesterday in council elections in England and Wales. LibDems were on a poor 10%, less than half of their Westminster turnout at the 2005 ballot.

The Holyrood picture was different from Westminster, where First Minister Alex Salmond has set his party a target of gaining 14 seats out of 59, on top of the six it holds. The poll showed the SNP on 45% of the constituency vote, with Labour on 31%, Tories on 12% and LibDems on 11%.

On the regional list vote, the SNP lead was almost as comfortable, at 41% and 12 points ahead of Labour, while Tories and LibDems were each on 12%. The Greens attracted 4%; Socialists and Solidarity polled only 1%.

Another poll, by YouGov earlier this week registered 36% support for the SNP on the Holyrood constituency vote, with Labour on 31%, LibDems on 15% and Tories on 13%. On the regional vote, YouGov’s internet sample showed the SNP on 37%, Labour on 28%, LibDems and Tories on 13%. For Westminster intentions, Labour had 34%, four points ahead of the SNP, with Tories on 17% and LibDems on 14%.
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