DUCKPOND

This year we are due to see the end of the Bush regime and the election of a new president, probably a Democrat, and probably either Obama or Clinton. Bush, and the judgment of history will escalate, or if you prefer surge, in its condemnation of him, Cheney and the Bush Administration, will probably end in a befitting whimper. G Bush is so lame he probably thinks this song is about him (via Modulator) :

The Great War on Terror will continue out of control, with Pakistan and Afghanistan, not to mention Iraq examples of chaos. I expect that funding will be questioned at every turn, and with this year as a guide the funds will be grudgingly given, until the American public wake up to the fact that they are paying for this spectacular failure with loss services. That awakening must surely take place at some time. Television is a great drug but its sedation must have limits.

This year other players might step forward to play more leading roles in world affairs. I am expecting the Europeans to exercise more say in global affairs, especially in the light of their relative economic leverage. Who knows, the British might even drop the pound for the euro. Russia continues to be the sick giant, but not quite a real superpower despite its nuclear weapons and the target of the American containment policy. China will host the Olympics, and in the wake of the faltering dollar begin to make its economic presence felt. I would not be surprised to hear that major American corporations and other assets become Chinese owned.

It is difficult for me to anticipate with any degree of reliability how the Rudd Government will fare. Work Choices may well trigger another constitutional crisis if the Liberals successfully block amendments in the Senate. Minchen will be up for this obstruction, bu it the kind of bloody mindedness which may well cause a fracture in an already wounded Liberal Party. Still we can breathe a sigh of relief that J Howard has gone forever, and with him, his whole agenda, and in due course his retinue. One will expect Rudd to keep up the brisk pace he has set. It will be interesting to watch how a Mandarin speaking prime minister plays out with our relations with Asia, South East Asia, and China and Japan.

In summary: Bush will continue in office, the attack on Iran will not occur, Obama may well be the Democratic candidate and the next president, Brown will limp on in the UK, and the Rudd change will continue in Australia, for good and ill.

OTHER PREDICTIONS: 01 January 2008

Refer following post.