DUCKPOND

It is looking as if the Independent has taken the NSW state seat of Pittwater from the Liberal Party.

This seat was held by the previous leader of the Liberals in NSW, John Brogden, who due to the viciousness of the party infighting attempted suicide.

With about 70% of the vote counted and distributed between the two leading candidates, the Independent has 56% of two-party preferences and the Liberal candidate 44%. Unless there are factors I am not aware of, and there could be, this result would suggest that the Independent will be elected. With preferential voting (run-off voting) because it becomes clear would the leading candidates are, the preferences of the minor candidates for the leading candidates, in this case the Independent and the Liberal, can be distributed, creating in effect a two horse race. I get the impression that the preferences of the minor candidates are flowing disproportionally to the Independent. If this was first past the post, the result would be very close.

I would put this result down as a victory for Australian decency, and the resentment people feel of parties foisting candidates on them.

At the same time, I believe it makes the case for a multi-member proportional system. The Liberal Party was run over in the last election run in the fog of the Iraq War. It needs more members and talent to do its job as an effective opposition. By building up a large majority in a seat such as Pittwater, the Liberals in this case lose out whereas with MMP could help to elect list candidates. Similarly, if you happened to be a Labor supporter and lived in Pittwater, your party of preference would never be elected.

The results of the Pittwater by-election are here. One further point, that I have not mentioned, is that at the State-level we have a optional preferential system, which means that the electors can express as many preferences as there are candidates by ranking each of the candidates, some of the candidates, or voting for one candidate.

The ABC reports the Liberals have lost Pittwater with a swing against them of 25% – which despite the fact that Labor did not run, has to one of the largest swings in Australian history.

According to The Sydney Morning Herald, the Independent announced his victory as soon as the booth results were to hand.

27 November 2005 – I would have thought the local issues would have been sufficient for this result – the Brogden case, “the arrogance of those in power toward local issue, and the absence of the ALP neutralizing the protest against the State Government. cs points out the results mirror national opinion polls. The results are more clearly reported here on first preferences.

People who suggest the IR legislation is simply a hip pocket nerve issue, do not understand it. One is left wondering at the despicable evil, hubris, and cruelty of its proposers, and their casual indifference to, and remotenes from, the welfare of their fellow citizens. What is wrong with people, who given the choice, seek blood and brutality? Oh, we got that covered, we have got the terror legislation.