IRAQI INSURGENCY FALLING APART? March 27, 2005Posted by wmmbb in Iraq.
According to this report in The Guardian, the Iraqi Sunni insurgency is falling apart. Two major reasons are given. The election has apparently given the Government legitimacy. Secondly direct negotiations with the Sunni tribal leaders are driving a wedge between Islamic extremists and the nationalists.
At this point, I am sceptical. No government has being formed from the elections. Not a good look. The Sunnis had good reason for not participating in the election. Furthermore, a major reason for Shia to participate was the promise of the removal of the invaders. I suspect the logic is simple: as long as the invaders remain, there will be resistance of one form or another.
And, it would be a good tactic for the Americans to desist from their haphazard murder and incarceration of Iraqi citizens. What legal basis do they have for doing what they do? If unilateralism is taken literally they have none. Oops they make it up as they go.
Such is the nature of media management and propaganda that this “story” has been created. But then it may be accurate. I can believe that car bombing, with callous disregard for murder of innocent people would cause a backlash. I doubt provided a capability for resistance to an invasion exists it will whither.
Supposing the insurgency did fold. When would the Americans remove themselves, and would they do so completely. Scepticism is appropriate to this outcome as well.
UPDATE: MONDAY 28/03/2005
Juan Cole collects information suggesting the article quoted above was not based on the same reported reality. The question to my mind is: What is the best outcome, and how is it to be accomplished? What are the win/win possiblities?